NJ Inst of Technology

Conference:	GWC
Expected RPI:	300.0
Current RPI:	300
Expected SOS:	347
Current SOS:	347
Current Record:	12-13
Expected Record:	12-13
Current Conf Record:	6-3
Expected Conf Record:	6-3
Probability of Auto Bid:	0.00%
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	12-8
Current OOC Record:	6-10
Expected OOC Record:	6-10
Expected OOC RPI:	322
Expected OOC SOS:	345

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
12-13	300.0	100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for NJ Inst of Technology.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Loc	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Providence (91.0)	BE	A	64-63	L	0%
11-18	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	A	77-74	L	0%
11-21	New Hampshire (293.0)	AE	H	69-67	W	100%
11-24	South Carolina St. (342.0)	MEAC	H	72-63	W	100%
12-1	St. John's (96.0)	BE	A	57-49	L	0%
12-4	Seton Hall (138.0)	BE	A	68-59	L	0%
12-11	Army (205.0)	Pat	H	69-67	W	100%
12-13	North Carolina A&T (213.0)	MEAC	H	71-76	L	0%
12-28	Villanova (52.0)	BE	A	70-60	L	0%
12-30	St. Francis NY (207.0)	NEC	H	87-89	L	0%
1-2	Lafayette (153.0)	Pat	A	83-66	L	0%
1-5	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	A	52-57	W	100%
1-12	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	H	83-78	W	100%
1-14	Fairleigh Dickinson (299.0)	NEC	A	63-66	W	100%
1-17	Pennsylvania (280.0)	Ivy	H	53-54	L	0%
1-21	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	A	96-94	L	0%
1-26	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	H	64-51	W	100%
2-2	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	A	66-57	L	0%
2-6	Colgate (256.0)	Pat	A	58-77	W	100%
2-9	Chicago St. (320.0)	GWC	A	58-63	W	100%
2-16	Utah Valley (297.0)	GWC	H	63-55	W	100%
2-23	New Orleans (346.0)	ind	H	84-64	W	100%
3-2	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	H	69-58	W	100%
3-9	Texas Pan American (306.0)	GWC	A	76-59	L	0%
3-15	Houston Baptist (310.0)	GWC	N	61-62	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

NJ Inst of Technology's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

NJ Inst of Technology's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against NJ Inst of Technology.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
NJ Inst of Technology	GWC	26.46	26.46	49.52	49.52	-0.25	-0.25
Houston Baptist	GWC	6.79	6.79	36.00	36.00	-1.90	-1.90
Texas Pan American	GWC	4.75	4.75	42.31	42.31	-0.73	-0.73
Chicago St.	GWC	4.68	4.68	26.92	26.92	-2.16	-2.16
Utah Valley	GWC	4.64	4.64	38.46	38.46	-1.07	-1.07
New Orleans	ind	4.36	4.36	15.00	15.00	-3.05	-3.05
South Carolina St.	MEAC	4.06	4.06	11.54	11.54	-3.12	-3.12
Army	Pat	2.26	2.26	51.72	51.72	0.08	0.08
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	2.24	2.24	51.52	51.52	0.07	0.07
Colgate	Pat	2.23	2.23	35.48	35.48	-0.65	-0.65
Lafayette	Pat	2.23	2.23	53.12	53.12	0.14	0.14
St. Francis NY	NEC	2.19	2.19	37.93	37.93	-0.53	-0.53
Villanova	BE	2.19	2.19	58.06	58.06	0.35	0.35
Providence	BE	2.19	2.19	53.33	53.33	0.15	0.15
St. John's	BE	2.16	2.16	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Seton Hall	BE	2.16	2.16	43.75	43.75	-0.27	-0.27
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	2.10	2.10	23.33	23.33	-1.12	-1.12
Pennsylvania	Ivy	2.06	2.06	26.67	26.67	-0.96	-0.96
New Hampshire	AE	2.03	2.03	29.63	29.63	-0.83	-0.83
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.37	0.37	67.86	67.86	0.13	0.13
Holy Cross	Pat	0.32	0.32	40.00	40.00	-0.06	-0.06
Missouri Kansas City	Sum	0.32	0.32	22.58	22.58	-0.17	-0.17
Lehigh	Pat	0.32	0.32	68.97	68.97	0.12	0.12
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.29	0.29	37.50	37.50	-0.07	-0.07
Albany	AE	0.28	0.28	70.59	70.59	0.11	0.11
Rice	CUSA	0.27	0.27	13.79	13.79	-0.20	-0.20
Bucknell	Pat	0.25	0.25	84.38	84.38	0.17	0.17
Syracuse	BE	0.25	0.25	74.29	74.29	0.12	0.12
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.25	0.25	35.48	35.48	-0.07	-0.07
Texas Arlington	WAC	0.25	0.25	59.38	59.38	0.05	0.05
Cal St. Bakersfield	ind	0.24	0.24	38.46	38.46	-0.06	-0.06
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.23	0.23	20.69	20.69	-0.14	-0.14
DePaul	BE	0.23	0.23	34.38	34.38	-0.07	-0.07
Notre Dame	BE	0.23	0.23	73.53	73.53	0.11	0.11
American	Pat	0.22	0.22	33.33	33.33	-0.07	-0.07
Long Island	NEC	0.22	0.22	60.61	60.61	0.05	0.05
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.21	0.21	34.48	34.48	-0.07	-0.07
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.20	0.20	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	BE	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Monmouth	NEC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
Navy	Pat	0.19	0.19	23.33	23.33	-0.10	-0.10
Rutgers	BE	0.19	0.19	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Cincinnati	BE	0.19	0.19	66.67	66.67	0.06	0.06
Louisville	BE	0.19	0.19	85.29	85.29	0.13	0.13
Marquette	BE	0.19	0.19	74.19	74.19	0.09	0.09
South Florida	BE	0.19	0.19	38.71	38.71	-0.04	-0.04
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.18	0.18	30.00	30.00	-0.07	-0.07
San Jose St.	WAC	0.18	0.18	28.57	28.57	-0.08	-0.08
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.18	0.18	48.39	48.39	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.18	0.18	43.33	43.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pepperdine	WCC	0.18	0.18	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Binghamton	AE	0.17	0.17	6.90	6.90	-0.15	-0.15
Bryant	NEC	0.17	0.17	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Brown	Ivy	0.17	0.17	44.44	44.44	-0.02	-0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.16	0.16	29.63	29.63	-0.07	-0.07
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Wagner	NEC	0.16	0.16	61.29	61.29	0.04	0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.16	0.16	41.94	41.94	-0.03	-0.03
Columbia	Ivy	0.16	0.16	38.46	38.46	-0.04	-0.04
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.16	0.16	17.24	17.24	-0.10	-0.10
Georgetown	BE	0.16	0.16	80.65	80.65	0.10	0.10
Pittsburgh	BE	0.16	0.16	75.00	75.00	0.08	0.08
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.14	0.14	29.03	29.03	-0.06	-0.06
Houston	CUSA	0.14	0.14	60.00	60.00	0.03	0.03
Iowa	B10	0.14	0.14	63.64	63.64	0.04	0.04
Oregon St.	P12	0.14	0.14	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.14	0.14	28.00	28.00	-0.06	-0.06
Troy	SB	0.14	0.14	36.36	36.36	-0.04	-0.04
Tulane	CUSA	0.14	0.14	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vermont	AE	0.14	0.14	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Louisiana St.	SEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.14	0.14	7.14	7.14	-0.12	-0.12
Maine	AE	0.14	0.14	34.48	34.48	-0.04	-0.04
Stony Brook	AE	0.14	0.14	76.67	76.67	0.07	0.07
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	32.26	32.26	-0.05	-0.05
Yale	Ivy	0.13	0.13	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.13	0.13	22.58	22.58	-0.07	-0.07
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.13	0.13	56.25	56.25	0.02	0.02
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	69.70	69.70	0.05	0.05
Quinnipiac	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.13	0.13	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.13	0.13	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Air Force	MWC	0.12	0.12	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Butler	A10	0.12	0.12	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.12	0.12	31.25	31.25	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	76.47	76.47	0.06	0.06
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas El Paso	CUSA	0.11	0.11	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hartford	AE	0.10	0.10	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
MD Baltimore County	AE	0.10	0.10	23.33	23.33	-0.06	-0.06
South Carolina	SEC	0.10	0.10	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland	ACC	0.10	0.10	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Boston College	ACC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.10	0.10	20.69	20.69	-0.06	-0.06
Cornell	Ivy	0.10	0.10	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Princeton	Ivy	0.09	0.09	59.26	59.26	0.02	0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.09	0.09	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Bowling Green	MAC	0.09	0.09	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Duquesne	A10	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Austin Peay	OVC	0.07	0.07	20.69	20.69	-0.04	-0.04
Boston University	AE	0.07	0.07	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Chattanooga	SC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.07	0.07	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.07	0.07	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPU Fort Wayne	Sum	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
IUPUI	Sum	0.07	0.07	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
Jacksonville	ASun	0.07	0.07	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.07	0.07	10.00	10.00	-0.06	-0.06
Kent St.	MAC	0.07	0.07	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Lamar	Slnd	0.07	0.07	9.68	9.68	-0.06	-0.06
Loyola Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Missouri	SEC	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.07	0.07	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.07	0.07	70.97	70.97	0.03	0.03
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	78.79	78.79	0.04	0.04
Portland	WCC	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Santa Clara	WCC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
South Carolina Upstate	ASun	0.07	0.07	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.07	0.07	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Utah St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	Horz	0.07	0.07	78.12	78.12	0.04	0.04
Washington St.	P12	0.07	0.07	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	80.00	80.00	0.04	0.04
Wisconsin Green Bay	Horz	0.07	0.07	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Illinois	B10	0.06	0.06	63.64	63.64	0.02	0.02
Marist	MAAC	0.06	0.06	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Fairfield	MAAC	0.06	0.06	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Fordham	A10	0.06	0.06	22.58	22.58	-0.04	-0.04
Harvard	Ivy	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
NC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	44.83	44.83	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.06	0.06	70.00	70.00	0.03	0.03
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Temple	A10	0.06	0.06	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
Rhode Island	A10	0.06	0.06	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
St. Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Virginia Military Inst	BSth	0.03	0.03	39.29	39.29	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
College of Charleston	SC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Detroit	Horz	0.03	0.03	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Massachusetts	A10	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Murray St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	65.52	65.52	0.01	0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	44.83	44.83	-0.00	-0.00
Virginia Commonwealth	A10	0.03	0.03	76.47	76.47	0.02	0.02
Xavier	A10	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Alabama	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Elon	SC	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Marshall	CUSA	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Stanford	P12	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Campbell	BSth	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Georgia Southern	SC	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	57.69	57.69	0.00	0.00
NC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wright St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01